Best Picture:
The winner will be... Avatar
The winner should be... A Serious Man
The nominees, in order of preference:
A Serious Man
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
An Education
Up in the Air
The Blind Side
District 9
Up
Best Actor:
The winner will be... Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
The winner should be... Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Nominees in order of preference:
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Colin Firth, A Single Man
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Best Actress
The winner will be... Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia (one out-on-a-limb pick per year, people; I predicted her last year and it was unsuccessful, but maybe this time?)
The winner should be... Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Nominees in order of preference:
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Carey Mulligan, An Education (I'll give the praisers their due, this is a "Hepburn-esque," interesting performance. It's kind of cool that kind of thing got a nomination)
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (maybe this is a little low, but I agree with the people who said that it was kind of "annoying acting".)
Best Supporting Actor
The winner will be... Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
The winner should be... Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (is it a first that Cannes Best Actor and an Academy winning performance are one and the same?)
The nominees, in order of preference:
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Matt Damon, Invictus
Haven't seen: Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Best Supporting Actress:
The winner will be... Mo'nique, Precious
The winner should be... Mo'nique, Precious (simply the best performance nominated this year)
Nominees, in order of preference:
Mo'nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Haven't seen: Penelope Cruz, Nine
Best Director (just my luck I saw two of the directors in person in NYC)
The winner will be... Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (I see a BP/BD split going on)
The winner should be... Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Nominees, in order of preference:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay
The winner will be... Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
The winner should be... Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Nominees, in order of preference:
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Bob Peterson and Pete Doctor (w/Tom McCarthy), Up
Best Adapted Screenplay
The winner will be... Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
The winner should be... Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Nominees, in order of preference:
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Bob Peterson and Pete Doctor (w/Tom McCarthy), Up
Best Adapted Screenplay
The winner will be... Shelton Turner and Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
The winner should be... Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, and Tony Roche, In the Loop (this will finally make amends with Joezeph Zukö)
Nominations in order of preference:
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9 (the ideas in this movie are admittedly good, even though the movie never really started)
Nick Hornby, An Education
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Best Animated Feature
The winner will be... Up
The winner should be... Fantastic Mr. Fox (it'd be nice to see Wes Anderson win an Academy Award, because this is probably the only time he's ever going to have the chance)
Nominees in order of preference:
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Up
Haven't seen:
Coraline
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Art Direction:
The winner will be... Avatar
The winners should be... either Avatar or The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (which I haven't seen but looks good in terms of art direction)
Nominees, in order of preference:
I've only seen one of these movies, Avatar
The other nominees:
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
Best Cinematography
The winner will be... Avatar (but The Hurt Locker has a definite chance)
The winner should be... (as people like my friend said) The White Ribbon or The Hurt Locker (both of these movies achieved a look with two vastly different styles, as NFP commented)
Nominees, in order of preference:
The White Ribbon
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Avatar (I think it's a matter of separating Effects from Cinematography, like NFP sort of did last year; the camerawork in this movie was kind of regular)
Haven't seen: Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Costume Design:
The winner will be... Nine (because of Colleen Atwood, and because they want to give this movie and Harvey Weinstein at least something)
The winner should be... Bright Star (amazing costumes, period)
The nominees, in order of preference:
Bright Star is the only one of these that I've seen
The other nominees:
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria
Documentary Feature
The winner will be... The Cove
The winner should be... I've seen two, The Cove and Food, Inc., and while both were good, I wasn't as blown away as last year. Maybe Burma VJ will be good or something. Otherwise, these films both had their ups and downs, so I'd rank them about the same. NO PREFERENCE
The nominees:
Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsburg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home
Documentary Short: No preference
The winner will be... China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The nominees:
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardener
The Last Truck: The Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit á la Berlin
Film Editing:
The winner will be... Avatar
The winner should be... it's a little obvious and (as a friend said) "new-school", but The Hurt Locker
The nominees in order of preference:
The Hurt Locker
District 9 (I dunno, I guess it's pretty good)
Inglourious Basterds
Avatar
Precious
Foreign Language Film
The winner will be... A Prophet (France)
The winner should be... (I haven't seen it yet, but) A Prophet (France)
The nominees (since I've only seen The White Ribbon)
Ajami (Israel)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
A Prophet (France)
The Secret in His Eyes (Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Germany)
Makeup:
The winner will be... The Young Victoria
The winner should be... I saw like the first 5 minutes of Il Divo, and I think it had good makeup
The nominees (I've seen only one all the way through, Star Trek)
Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria
Music (Original Score):
The winner will be... Up
The winner should be... If you want to talk about integrality to the movie (like wpk914 on Itunes), then it should be a split between Fanastic Mr. Fox and Up. Most interesting to listen to: Sherlock Holmes.
The nominees, in order of preference:
Sherlock Holmes
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Up (I guess it's "pleasant," but it has that annoying Pixar feeling to it)
The Hurt Locker (I guess its interesting in some ways, and though someone said it's all "clangings," etc., it's still pretty good)
Avatar (so stereotypical, but sound)
Music, Original Song:
The winner will be... "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
The winner should be... "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
The nominees in order of preference:
"The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
"Down in New Orleans," The Princess and the Frog
"Almost There," The Princess and the Frog
"Loin de Paname," Paris 36
"Take it All," Nine (it's presence is kind of annoying)
Animated Short Films (no preference)
The winner will be... A Matter of Loaf and Death
The other nominees:
French Roast
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper
Logorama
Live Action Short Films (no preference)
The winner will be... Miracle Fish
The other nominees:
The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
The New Tenants
Sound Editing (no real preference; I can't really remember that much from these movies):
The winner will be... Avatar
The other nominees:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up
Sound Mixing (same as above)
The winner will be... Avatar
The other nominees:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Haven't seen (actually I saw half): Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
And finally,
Visual Effects
The winner (obviously) will be... Avatar
The winner should be... Avatar or possibly District 9
The nominees in order of preference:
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek (I berated these heavily in my review, so there you go).
Ha. Took a while, but here I am.