Best Performances of 2011

I would pick favorites in each of the categories but it's just so hard to choose. Best Actor was by far the strongest field; in some of the other categories I reached a little bit for HMs, etc. Blue and bold means that the perf is from a movie not released in the calendar year that I ended up seeing somehow else. Classifications for "leading" and "supporting" here are not exactly perfect: sometimes I based them on convenience, sometimes on the conventions of the awards bodies (like Berenice Bejo; I would have included her as Best Actress), etc.

Best Actor:

George Clooney, The Descendants

Tom Cullen, Weekend

Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Michael Fassbender, Shame

Peyman Moaadi, A Separation

HM: Lior Ashkenazi, Footnote; Xavier Dolan, Heartbeats; Thomas Doret, The Kid With a Bike; Ewan McGregor, Beginners; Chris New, Weekend; Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life; Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Andre Wilms, Le Havre

Best Actress:

Sareh Bayat, A Separation

Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur

Ariane Lebed, Attenberg

Adepero Oduye, Pariah

Ana Ularu, Outbound

HM: Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia; Leila Hatami, A Separation; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Anna Paquin, Margaret

Best Supporting Actor:

Raul Castillo, Cold Weather

John Hawkes, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Shahab Hosseini, A Separation

Christopher Plummer, Beginners

John C. Reilly, Terri

HM: Shlomo Bar-Aba, Footnote; Rory Culkin, Margaret; Michael Fassbender, Jane Eyre; Vangelis Mourikis, Attenberg; Charles Parnell, Pariah; Mark Ruffalo, Margaret

Best Supporting Actress:

Nicole Beharie, Shame

Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Melanie Laurent, Beginners

Carey Mulligan, Shame

Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

HM: Charlotte Gainsbourg, Melancholia; Sarah Paulson, Martha Marcy May Marlene; J. Smith-Cameron, Margaret

Technical achievements maybe at a later date. (Edits have been made on this post, due to performances being brought to my attention again.)

Cannes 2011 (Day 9 Predictions)

Palme D'Or:

Before the festival, I thought that one film had it all locked up: "The Tree of Life," by Terrence Malick, a director who had only won a Best Director prize at the festival over 30 years ago and who seemed due for more. However, that film's chances have drastically lowered since it actually premiered, and now I'd have to say that the movie retains an outside shot based on what it has left of its initial hype as well as the fact that the jury may be more sympathetic than some critics have been (however Gabe Klinger has heard otherwise).

My money is on the not-yet-shown "Once Upon a Time in Anatolia" by Nuri Bilge Ceylan, who really seems like he's got a shot at the big time this year, having won Best Director (as well as his actors having won Best Actor) in the past.

As for previously speculated films, I agree with Jason Solomons here, who says "Melancholia" ain't going nowhere (especially since Lars Von Trier, being such an enfant terrible, has lost the privilege of going to Cannes). Pedro Almodovar's "The Skin I Live In" got lackluster enough notices to lose its buzz. The Dardennes Brothers will not win a third Palme d'Or for "The Kid With A Bike." Sorry, not gonna happen. And Lynne Ramsay's "We Need to Talk About Kevin" has much better chances in the fields of Best Actress and Director, especially since Ramsay is not a festival veteran.

The biggest upset material comes in the form of "Le Havre" by Aki Kaurismaki, which many have been touting (to Mike D'Angelo's chagrin) and which could win a place in the hearts of the jury members. However, Kaurismaki I think might win a different award. And don't forget about "The Artist."

Gran Prix:

Now that I think "Once Upon A Time in Anatolia" will cop the top prize, room is left open for Paolo Sorrentino's "This Must Be the Place" to take second place. However, this could turn on a dime: when it screens for critics, there might not be a lot of love for Sean Penn's laconic, mumbly performance (and thus the whole enterprise will go down)-- or perhaps too much (Best Actor?). If that's the case, Nicolas Winding Refn's "Drive" might be able to get this. That is, unless it wins...

Jury Prize:

... third place. "Drive" seems tailor-made to win the festival's riskiest award (previous editions have given this to "Persepolis," "Thirst," and "Fish Tank").

Best Actor:

Without his film being rewarded, I think Brad Pitt will be given props for what has been called perhaps his strongest acting job in "The Tree of Life." If this happens, I think Pitt's a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination (maybe even a win?). Could the leads from "Footnote" make a resurgence? Possibly, but I think Pitt has it.

Best Actress:

Actresses tend to be easy to predict, and Tilda Swinton has stood as the frontrunner since the beginning of the festival, for her work in "We Need to Talk About Kevin." If she somehow doesn't win, I suspect Emily Browning from "Sleeping Beauty" will take it, although maybe "Melancholia"'s Kirsten Dunst will get the dividends of the Von Trier situation (Roger Ebert seems to think his deal will be an impediment, but I think that it might actually arouse sympathy in that the jury will think that Dunst is being canceled out). Cecile de France might continue the Dardennes winning streak (for "The Kid With A Bike") but I dunno.

Best Director:

A three person race: Kaurismaki vs. Ramsay vs. Michel Hazanavicius, who I think got enough positive reception for "The Artist" to receive recognition from the jury. Who thought he, as a late entrant and as a former spoof filmmaker, would ever get to being speculated for this award?

Best Screenplay:

This could go to "This Must Be the Place," should a fallout happen to its Gran Prix chances, "Le Havre," since it's a comedy, or "We Need to Talk About Kevin," for being an adaptation, but I really think this category is down (for various reasons) to "Footnote," "Hanezu," and "The Source." Any of these three could win it in the end, but right now I'm thinking that "Footnote" (written by its director, Joseph Cedar) has the best shot, despite the claims it's sometimes ridiculous.

To summarize:

Palme d'Or: Once Upon a Time in Anatolia

Gran Prix: This Must Be the Place

Jury Prize: Drive

Best Actor: Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life

Best Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Best Screenplay: Joseph Cedar, Footnote

And I think "Miss Bala" might get something in Un Certain Regard.

Cannes 2011 Power Rankings: Selection Day Edition

Palme d'Or (Best Film):

1. The Tree of Life, Malick

2. Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, Ceylan

3. The Skin I Live In, Almodovar

4. Le Havre, Kaurismaki

5. We Need to Talk About Kevin, Ramsay

Just outside: Pater, Cavalier; This Must Be the Place, Sorrentino

Gran Prix (2nd place):

1. Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, Ceylan

2. We Need to Talk About Kevin, Ramsay

3. House of Tolerance, Bonello

4. Footnote, Cedar

5. Polisse, Le Besco

Jury Prize (3rd place):

1. House of Tolerance, Bonello

2. We Need to Talk About Kevin, Ramsay

3. Footnote, Cedar

4. Polisse, Le Besco

5. The Skin I Live In, Almodovar

Best Actor:

1. Lior Ashkenazi/Shlomo Bar-Aba, Footnote

2. Antonio Banderas, The Skin I Live In

3. Sean Penn, This Must Be the Place

4. Ryan Gosling, Drive

5. Nanni Moretti, We Have a Pope

Just outside: John C. Reilly, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Best Actress:

1. Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

2. Noemie Lvovsky, House of Tolerance

3. Emily Browning, Sleeping Beauty

4. Elena Anaya, The Skin I Live In

5. Cecile de France, Boy With a Bike

Just outside: Cary Mulligan, Drive

Best Director

1. Maiwenn Le Besco, Polisse

2. Alain Cavalier, Pater

3. Lynne Ramsay, We Need to Talk About Kevin

4. Joseph Cedar, Footnote

5. Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive

Just outside: Takashi Miike, Hara-kiri: Death of a Samurai

Best Screenplay

1. Julia Leigh, Sleeping Beauty

2. Lynne Ramsay and Roy Kinnear, We Need to Talk About Kevin

3. Aki Kaurismaki, Le Havre

4. Radu Mihaileanu, The Source

5. Joseph Cedar, Footnote

Just outside: Pedro Almodovar, The Skin I Live In; Hossein Amini, Drive

Golden Globe Predix and Preferences - 2010

Didn't have time to do all the movie categories, but here are most of them:

Best Picture – Drama

In order of my preference:

1. The Social Network

2. Black Swan

3. Inception

4. The King’s Speech

5. The Fighter

In order of their likelihood of winning:

1. The Social Network

2. The King’s Speech

3. Black Swan

4. Inception

5. The Fighter

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical:

Preference:

1. The Kids Are All Right

Haven’t seen: Alice in Wonderland, Burlesque, Red, The Tourist

Likelihood:

1. The Kids Are All Right

2. Alice in Wonderland

3. Burlesque

4. The Tourist

5. Red

Best Actor –Drama:

Preference:

1. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

3. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

4. James Franco, 127 Hours

5. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Likelihood:

1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

3. James Franco, 127 Hours

4. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

5. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical:

Preference:

1. Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack

Haven’t seen: Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs; Johnny Depp, The Tourist AND Alice in Wonderland; Paul Giamatti, Barney’s Version

Likelihood:

1. Paul Giamatti, Barney’s Version

2. Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland

3. Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs

5. Johnny Depp, The Tourist

Best Actress – Drama

Preference:

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone

2. Natalie Portman, Black Swan

3. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Haven’t seen: Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice

Likelihood (after 1 and 2, kind of hard to determine):

1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan

2. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone

3. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

4. Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice

5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy:

Preference:

1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

2. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

Haven’t seen: Emma Stone, Easy A; Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs; Angelina Jolie, The Tourist

Best Supporting Actor

Preference:

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

2. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

3. Jeremy Renner, The Town

4. Christian Bale, The Fighter

Haven’t seen: Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

Likelihood:

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter

2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

4. Jeremy Renner, The Town

5. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

Best Supporting Actress

Preference:

1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

2. Mila Kunis, Black Swan

3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech

4. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

5. Amy Adams, The Fighter

Likelihood:

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

2. Amy Adams, The Fighter

3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech

5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan

Best Director:

Preference:

1. David Fincher, The Social Network

2. Christopher Nolan, Inception

3. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

4. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

5. David O. Russell, The Fighter

Likelihood:

1. David Fincher, The Social Network

2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

3. Christopher Nolan, Inception

4. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

5. David O. Russell, The Fighter

Best Screenplay:

Preference:

1. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

2. David Seidler, The King’s Speech

3. Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right

4. Christopher Nolan, Inception

5. Simon Beaufoy, Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

Likelihood:

Same as above

As noted in the comments, I didn't post my Best Musical Comedy Actress prediction since I was in a rush, but I'm pretty sure I thought Annette Bening was going to win.

Father Crime: The Godfather

Francis Ford Coppola made himself a film legend with this classic mafia movie, and for good reason. This film deserves much praise for every detail. It is a 175 minute opus, and it has some of the most grand scope of any movie ever. It switches from the rich backdrop of 1940's New York to the amazing country side of Sicily, and then back again in great fashion. The violence is handled perfectly, with a limited amount of the bloodshed for such a genre, yet there are still many scenes of it. And, of course, the acting is spectacular. Marlon Brando as the mafia godfather Don Vito Corleone is great, as he is serious and somewhat silly at the same time with his Italian lisp. Robert Duvall is also good as the foundling who was taken into the family and now is a major part. James Caan also deserves kudos for his portrayal of Sonny, who is much more interested in violence and strategy, and, because he is the oldest son, is sure he is the perfect choice as the successor of Vito. But it is Al Pacino who trumps the competition as Michael Corleone. The most disturbing thing in this movie, past the horse heads and stabbed hands and stranglings, is the transformation of Michael from the innocent young war vet (he even said to his sweetheart Diane Keaton that he had nothing to do with the family) to the family patriarch, basically taking the place of Don as the new senseless dealmaker. It probably wasn't his first hit, but in fact his trip to Italy, where his short-lived wife (Simonetta Stefanelli) was tragically car bombed. It's extremely sad to see such a nice young man turn terrible. Anyways, this movie also spawned the phrases "I'll give him an offer he can't refuse" and "He was swimming with the fishes." It also is obviously the inspiration for such movies as Goodfellas. There is not much to say about this movie, other than that it is one of the greatest films of all time and it deserves all the honors, if not more. Gangster movies nowadays lack the vision of such a director and are more urban thrillers than mafioso epics. This one definitely falls in the latter category, because it is epic. As I stated before, it clocks in at an astounding 175 minutes, something you don't see these days anymore. It is an intense experience to watch this movie, but if Don Corleone had been real, that would have made him proud, and for good reason. There will never be another film as rich, grand, and epic as "The Godfather." There are aspects of this film that can not ever be re-created, and no special effects will ever help that. A